Will the United States maintain its dominance in the Paris Olympic pools?

For many years, the sound of “The Star-Spangled Banner” has been omnipresent in every Olympic swimming stadium. From the 1992 Games in Barcelona to the 2021 Games in Tokyo, which were postponed due to the pandemic, the U.S. swim team has won more gold medals than any other team. The last time Team USA did not win multiple golds in a single Olympics was 1988, when they finished second to East Germany. None of the current swimmers were alive then.

American swimmers have dominated both the overall and gold medal standings for years, almost to the point where it has become a given. Of course, Michael Phelps’ 23 gold medals in four Olympics played a significant role, but it wasn’t just him. Americans have often been the best in the world in their major events, often winning the relays as well.

However, that dominance is far from certain. Heading into the Paris Games, the Australians are expected to win the most gold medals of the group. The Australians outclassed the Americans at the World Championships in Fukuoka, Japan, last year, winning 13 gold medals to the Americans’ seven. Although Team USA won the overall medal table (38 to 25), their haul was less golden than usual.

Paris could be the same. It’s a possibility the Americans aren’t shying away from and are determined to avoid. “Historically, the United States has done a better job of reaching a higher level than any other country in the world,” said U.S. women’s head coach Todd DeSorbo. “Of course, there are some events for both genders where we have a lot of ground to make up, but I have faith in the motivation, enthusiasm and commitment of everyone on the team to do really special things.”

Among those hoping otherwise is Australian star Cate Campbell. She expressed satisfaction at not hearing the U.S. anthem during the World Championships. “It’s one thing for Australia to come out on top, but it’s much sweeter to beat America,” Campbell told Australia’s Channel 9 last August.

It was the first time since 2001 that the U.S. had not won the most gold medals in a world championship meet. Of the nine swimmers who have won multiple individual gold medals, Katie Ledecky was the only American to do so. “The world is getting better,” Bob Bowman, the U.S. men’s head coach at worlds, told reporters in Japan. The Australians set five world records in the meet. Neither seven-time Olympic gold medalist Caeleb Dressel nor two-time gold medalist Simone Manuel competed in Japan, and both will swim in Paris.

Katie Ledecky is the favorite to win gold in the 800 meters and 1,500 meters freestyle in Paris, but other than that, most events are too competitive to predict. Campbell didn’t qualify for Paris, but her comments have had a strong impact, including one calling the Americans “bad losers” for celebrating the most overall medals when the Australians nearly doubled their gold haul. That struck a nerve with Phelps, who worked as a commentator for NBC during the U.S. trials last month.

For the first time in a long time, it’s hard to know what to expect. Ledecky, a seven-time Olympic gold medalist, will be favored to win gold in the 800 meters and 1,500 meters freestyle. Besides, the races are too competitive to make reliable predictions.

Caeleb Dressel, the top American sprinter, will have a chance to defend his Tokyo gold medals in the 50-meter freestyle and 100-meter butterfly. He looked in good shape at tryouts, but is still in the process of returning to the sport after an eight-month hiatus. Bobby Finke will be favored to win the 1,500-meter freestyle, and Ryan Murphy is expected to compete in both backstroke events. But overall, the three are not obvious candidates to repeat their Tokyo success.

Gretchen Walsh, Regan Smith and Kate Douglass will headline the women’s team alongside Ledecky, but the trio have far less Olympic experience. Walsh and Smith set world records at tryouts and will compete in their respective events in Paris.

Among the biggest names on Team USA, several are likely to win a medal at the Games, even if it doesn’t necessarily mean gold. The relay races will also be extremely competitive. But what’s most obvious is that the team composition is quite different from just two Games ago, when Phelps and Ryan Lochte led the charge in Rio de Janeiro alongside an impressive Ledecky.

However, USA Swimming President and CEO Tim Hinchey III said the organization’s goal is to win the overall medal table and the gold medal table. Is that achievable? The Americans will soon find out.

“I thought we were in a good position compared to the rest of the world before the trials, and coming out of the trials, I think we were in an even better position,” DeSorbo said. “We’re just ready to go camping in Croatia, get to Paris and get the Games started.”